South China Sea outlook
The disputes over sovereignty in the South China Sea are approaching a tipping point. As former ASEAN secretary-general Rodolfo Severino said last month: “The disputes cannot be resolved anytime soon, if at all. The most that can be done is to prevent them developing into armed conflict.”... There are six claimants to all or part of the sea, which is traversed by over one-third of world shipping and holds rich fishing stocks and vast reserves of oil and gas... At the ASEAN ministerial meeting in Phnom Penh last month, the Philippines and Vietnam urged their colleagues to publicly support them. Cambodia, this year’s chairman, would not allow it... So now, as well as China confronting members of ASEAN, we have the group fighting within itself – so much so that after intemperate accusations of “dirty politics”, Cambodia replaced its ambassador in Manila. Exacerbating matters, Washington – already imbued with growing anti-Beijing sentiment – has been bolstering the resolve of ASEAN’s claimants, while Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand strengthen their ties to China...
